Friday, January 4, 2008

Some thoughts on Iowa

Well, what can I say about the Iowa primaries that won't be repeated today by every political junkie with as much as a pair of eyes? I guess I could pre-empt what is sure to be an industry full of fawning, starry eyed journalists who will undoubtedly call this a surprise upset bound to rock the political landscape at its very foundations.

I say this because, really, the Iowa caucuses weren't that surprising. After all, Mike Huckabee came in second in a straw poll in Iowa last summer, months before he was even considered a serious contender and surely way before anybody conceived it possible that he could beat the quintessential Ken-doll-of-politics Mitt Romney and insane Republican fascist Rudy Giuliani. If he was doing well back then, it stands to reason that he would be doing even better after voters had a few more months to expose Giuliani as a vile opportunist and Romney for, well, just being Romney.

That being said, it would be less of a surprise to me if Huckabee loses New Hampshire. Not only does he not have the well-oiled political machine of Romney, nor the power behind his message (what, exactly, is Huckabee about besides religion, anyway?), but a new poll shows him at a sizable disadvantage. In fact, a whopping 40% of New Hampshans have an unfavorable view of him. I'm not sure, but it could be that Huckabee is a fucking batshit crazy religious zealot who compared abortion to the Holocaust. I'm just saying.

As for Barack Obama, his victory is of little surprise to me, as well. I was on the fence between Hillary Clinton and Obama until recently, but just based on my own perception of how both candidates portray themselves, Obama seems to be much less full of shit than Hillary. He also has inherent advantages in regard to general electability: His last name isn't Clinton (and people seem to finally be in the mood to give a new family dynasty a shot at leading the nation); he's extremely charismatic; and he's a man. I don't agree that the "man advantage" is a good thing, but I truly think that voters -- in all their irritating glory -- are at the point where electing a black guy is more favorable than electing a woman. Part of my reasoning here is the fact that Hillary Clinton's sex seems to constantly come up on the campaign trail, yet nobody seems to be talking about the fact that Obama is black. For example, recently people were talking about how Hillary Clinton looks too much like an old woman, yet I've never heard anybody say that Obama looks too black. Perhaps sexism is more chic than racism these days. Who knows.

Anyway, Obama just comes off in the media as a younger, more energetic, more independent and more optimistic politician. Clinton comes off as militant, ready to draw battle lines and fight Republicans with gusto in order to influence a new direction for America. Obama, on the other hand, is succeeding very handily at coming off as somebody who will change this country simply by being an incredible leader. And when the landscape in American politics is such that voters fucking despise politicians more than any other time in history (not counting that time when we rejected the monarchy), I think a glimmer of hope at ending the petty bickering is refreshing, even for the cynics.

And lord knows I'm one of those.

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